Technology forecasting software

Technology forecasting software that tells you which technology wins.

GetFocus is technology forecasting software for R&D leaders. It measures how fast each competing technology improves, from the patent citation network, and places every route on a radar of maturity against improvement rate, with a verdict: fund, monitor, phase out or ignore.

Built on peer-reviewed MIT research · Last updated November 2026

01 · What it does02 · The radar03 · How it works04 · Proof05 · FAQ
01 · What it does

How does technology forecasting software differ from patent search and analytics?

Patent software falls into three groups. Search and portfolio analytics serve IP teams. Technology forecasting answers the question a roadmap depends on: which competing route will outperform the others, and when.

01Patent searchDoes it exist? Is our idea new?
  • Google Patents
  • Derwent Patent Search
  • IPRally
  • PatSnap Eureka
02Landscapes and portfoliosWho owns what, and how strong is it?
  • PatSnap Analytics
  • LexisNexis PatentSight+
  • Questel Orbit Intelligence
  • Cypris
03Technology forecastingWhich route wins, and when does it overtake? Ranks competing routes by measured improvement rate.
  • GetFocus
What existsWhat will win
02 · The radar

What does a technology forecast look like?

Each technology lands on its maturity (TRL) against its improvement rate. This is the live platform view for EV batteries: all six routes are mature enough to deploy, and only the rate tells them apart.

The GetFocus platform · EV batteries

Six routes, one radar. All are mature enough to deploy, and the improvement rate tells them apart.

Maturity (TRL) across, improvement rate up. Hover a route for its history.

GetFocus platform · Battery technologies · 31,644 patent families · Full radar and verdicts

Improvement rate (TIR) →
MONITOR CLOSELY

Immature, improving fast. The next fund candidates.

FUND

Mature and improving fast. Back it now.

IGNORE / WATCH

Immature and slow. Keep an eye on it, spend nothing.

PHASE OUT

Mature but slowing. Today's workhorse, tomorrow's cost.

TRL 1–5 · immatureMaturity (TRL) →TRL 6–9 · mature

Splits at TRL 5 and at the median improvement rate of the routes compared, so a verdict is always relative to its domain.

03 · How it works

How does GetFocus forecast which technology wins?

AI agents gather and read the patents. An explainable, peer-reviewed regression on two citation metrics does the forecasting.

01Build the patent set

AI search by meaning casts a wide net, then a language model reads each family and rules it in or out. One clean dataset per route.

02Read the citation network

Two signals from how those patents cite each other: cycle time, how fast inventions build on the last, and knowledge flow, how much later work builds on them.

03Estimate the rate

Those two metrics give each route its Technology Improvement Rate. Validated on 150+ domains at R² ≈ 0.7.

04Keep it live

New filings enter every month, rates are recomputed and verdicts move with the evidence.

The full method, the papers behind it and the validation are on the method page.

04 · Proof

Has the method called technology races early?

Each backtest replays history using only the patents public at the time. Filing volume pointed at the loser every time. The rate pointed at the winner, years early.

14 yrsData storage · HDD vs SSD

The rate flagged flash in 2001. The incumbent paid $19B to catch up in 2015.

Read the case →20 yrsImaging · film vs digital

Digital's rate was higher from the very start, flagged 20 years before the disruption.

Read the case →2×Displays · 3D TV vs 4K

At the peak of the 3D hype, 4K's rate was double. The industry shipped the wrong upgrade.

Read the case →4×Lighting · filament vs LED

In 1990 LED improved 32.5%/yr against the filament's 8.6%. The incumbents defended the filament.

Read the case →

All seven cases, and what the wrong call cost, are in the backtest library.

05 · FAQ

Technology forecasting: common questions

What is technology forecasting software?

Software that predicts which of several competing technologies will outperform the others, and when. GetFocus does it by measuring each technology's improvement rate from the patent citation network, a method built on peer-reviewed MIT research.

How is it different from patent analytics?

Patent analytics shows what has been filed and who owns it. Technology forecasting ranks the competing routes by how fast each one is improving, which is the signal that predicts which wins. See technology forecasting tools compared.

How accurate is it?

The patent-based rate explains about 70% of the variation in measured improvement rates (R² ≈ 0.7) across 150+ domains. In all seven published backtests, the rate pointed at the technology that became the standard while filing volume pointed at the loser. It is a directional signal: crossover dates are estimates.

Is it a generative-AI guess?

AI agents gather and read the patents. The forecast itself is an explainable regression on two citation metrics, and every number traces back to the patent record.

How is GetFocus priced?

An annual subscription per domain: one strategic technology area, up to 50 technologies tracked, five platform seats, monthly updates and quarterly reviews. You can test it first with a free 48-hour Decision Brief. See how it works.

What do you need from us?

One strategic question in plain language, such as which battery chemistry wins for low-cost EVs. You sign off on the list of routes our agents scout. We run everything else.

How fast is the first result?

A free preliminary Decision Brief arrives in 48 hours. A validated radar follows within weeks, and then updates every month.

Try it on your decision

See which technology wins in your domain

Bring us one live technology decision. Within 48 hours you get a first-pass radar and an improvement rate per competing route, on your domain.

Get a free 48-hour Decision Brief

Free · 48 hours · preliminary scoping. Validated radars come with a subscription.