In 2010, the CES where every major manufacturer launched 3D televisions: 3D measured an improvement rate of 27.6%/yr while 4K and HDR display technology measured 67.8%. Filing volume told the opposite story, six to one.
Every rate reading below is what the platform computes from patents public in that year.
James Cameron's Avatar becomes the highest-grossing film in history and convinces the television industry that 3D is the next living-room upgrade. The display data already points elsewhere.
Every major manufacturer launches 3D sets; ESPN 3D and other dedicated channels go live; DisplaySearch forecasts 90 million 3D TVs a year by 2014. The filing surge begins, into the slower technology.
3D television filings hit 2,017 families, six times the 4K/HDR count that year. The rate never followed the filings; it never had.
ESPN 3D shuts on 30 September, citing limited viewer adoption; the BBC suspends 3D programming after its pilot. Three years from launch to shutdown.
No 3D in any 2016 Samsung set. The feature that defined CES 2010 is quietly deleted from the spec sheet.
LG and Sony, the last holdouts, drop 3D the same season the industry declares 4K and HDR the standard. The technology the rate had favoured since 2001 wins.
4K and HDR display technology still improves at 57%/yr. 3D television survives as a museum-piece feature, and a case study.
In 2010 the 3D bet looked like following the customer. Every argument below was made in earnest, none of them measured the technology.
A record-breaking box office looked like a consumer mandate for 3D at home. Cinema spectacle and living-room habit are different products, the rate measured the technology, not the ticket sales.
At panel level, 3D was a marginal cost on sets already being built. But glasses, content and viewing comfort were the real system, and the system's rate stayed at half of 4K's.
ESPN, Sky and the BBC all launched 3D services, institutional proof of the ecosystem. All three had shut down or suspended within roughly three years.
A common argument against 4K: at living-room distances, who can see the pixels? HDR answered it, the upgrade was never only about resolution, and its 60%/yr rate said so.
We forecast the improvement rate from two citation metrics, cycle time and knowledge flow. Both were visible the whole time.
4K and HDR's cycle time held near five years against 3D's seven, and its knowledge flow climbed past 1.4 while 3D's sat near 0.9, later display work kept building on the 4K stack and largely ignored the 3D one. Faster generations, and each one mattered more.
Provenance. Every patent carries a filing date, so the record can be replayed: every improvement rate on this page uses only the patents that were public at the time. No hindsight enters the series. Chart data: GetFocus platform exports, August 2026. The historical facts below come from the public record.
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