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TL;DR
- Scenario planning for disruptive technology uses four kinds of tool: horizon scanning, scenario building, portfolio scenarios and quantitative forecasting.
- Shaping Tomorrow and ITONICS scan for signals, Futures Platform builds scenarios, Planisware tests what a scenario does to the portfolio.
- GetFocus and TechNext add evidence by measuring how fast each competing technology improves.
- Pair one scenario tool with one evidence tool, and replay a past decision before you buy.
Scenario planning for disruptive technology uses four kinds of tool. Shaping Tomorrow and ITONICS scan for signals. Futures Platform builds and shares scenarios. Planisware tests portfolio and budget scenarios. GetFocus and TechNext add quantitative evidence by measuring how fast each competing technology improves. Pair one scenario tool with one evidence tool.
We build GetFocus, so it is in this guide, in the quantitative forecasting group. We took the facts on every other tool from that vendor's own pages, read in November 2026 and linked below. For patent analytics and monitoring tools, see our technology forecasting tools comparison.
What does scenario planning software do for R&D?
A scenario plan describes a few plausible futures and asks how today's roadmap holds up in each. For a technology bet, the key uncertainty is usually which competing technology takes over a job, and when. The four tool groups below answer different parts of that question:
- Foresight and horizon scanning finds the signals and trends worth building scenarios around.
- Scenario building turns those signals into named futures that teams can discuss.
- Portfolio and roadmap scenarios test what each future does to budgets, timelines and projects.
- Quantitative technology forecasting measures which technology is gaining, so the team can weigh the scenarios with evidence.
How do the scenario planning tools compare?
| Tool | Method | Data source (as published) | Best for | Pricing as published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GetFocus | Improvement rate (TIR) from the patent citation network, paired with maturity (TRL) | 180M+ patent records via IFI Claims | Evidence on which competing technology is improving fastest | Free 48-hour Decision Brief; annual subscription per domain, price on request |
| Shaping Tomorrow | Horizon scanning with analyst judgement; scenarios as stress tests | 100,000+ validated sources (regulators, think-tanks, trade press) | Recurring briefings on emerging risks for leadership teams | On request (sample available) |
| ITONICS | Trend radar with AI signal clustering; roadmap scenarios add-on | Feeds and signals teams bring in; curated trends via Horizon scan add-on | Shared radars and roadmaps across many teams | Core, Pro, Enterprise; free version listed; prices on request |
| Futures Platform | Foresight workspace for scenarios and trend analysis | Expert-curated library of market insights and trends | Building and discussing scenarios with a wider team | On request |
| Planisware | Strategic portfolio management with scenario comparison and optimization | Your portfolio, budget and resource data | Testing what a scenario does to the R&D portfolio | On request |
| TechNext | Annual improvement rate per technology domain | "150,000+" technology domains | Timing when a route meets a performance requirement | On request |
Which tools are best for foresight and horizon scanning?
Shaping Tomorrow
Shaping Tomorrow has run continuous external intelligence for senior teams since 2002 (Shaping Tomorrow). Its Athena engine scans over 100,000 tiered sources, from regulators to specialist trade press, and analysts apply judgement before anything ships. Clients receive a weekly Signal Scanner, a monthly Change Tracker, a quarterly Decision Intelligence report with scenarios and options, and Action Triggers when evidence suggests assumptions are shifting.
It treats scenarios as test environments: "Scenarios are used as operating environments to test the resilience of current decisions." Each deliverable lists its assumptions, counter-evidence and a "where this could be wrong" box. It suits leadership teams that want a managed scanning service. Pricing is through a sample request or contact.
ITONICS
ITONICS builds trend radars that teams rate, filter and embed in board decks. Its AI, Prism, clusters incoming signals against a focus area and "shows how their momentum shifts over time" (ITONICS Radar). A Horizon scan add-on supplies expert-curated trends, and the Roadmap add-on includes roadmap scenarios, milestones and critical path (pricing).
Packages are Core, Pro and Enterprise, priced through sales; the FAQ says a free version exists. It suits innovation teams that need many contributors on one radar and roadmap. It works from the signals you bring or buy.
Which tools are best for building scenarios?
Futures Platform
Futures Platform is a foresight workspace where teams "Visualise future scenarios, collect insights, assess implications, and align decisions" (Futures Platform). It draws on an expert-curated library of market insights, emerging signals and long-term trends. Its AI Futurist works within that library and established foresight methods, and the Synapse workspace connects signals, trends and the user's own data. A Horizon Scanning Tool is offered as a starting point.
It suits strategy and foresight teams who run scenario workshops with colleagues across the business. Pricing is through a demo.
Which tools test portfolio and roadmap scenarios?
Planisware
Planisware's strategic planning capability lets teams "Build and compare strategic scenarios across budgets, markets, and capacity" (Planisware). Users change market assumptions and see the effect on value, risk, capacity and timeline, and the platform uses particle-swarm optimization to suggest a portfolio mix. Planisware Nova targets product development portfolios (Planisware).
It works on your own portfolio data, so it answers what a scenario costs. The technology assumptions inside each scenario come from elsewhere. Pricing is on request.
Which tools add quantitative technology forecasts to scenarios?
GetFocus
GetFocus is what we build. It measures how fast each competing technology improves: we read the patent citation network for every route, compute a Technology Improvement Rate (TIR) from cycle time and knowledge flow, then pair it with maturity (TRL) on one radar with four verdicts: fund, monitor, phase out, ignore (method). Our forecast is validated on 150+ domains at R² ≈ 0.7 (method).
In a scenario plan, the rate tells you which future the evidence leans toward. A replay from the powertrain debate: in 2001, NMC lithium batteries measured an improvement rate of 54% a year against 21% for hydrogen fuel cells and 11% for the combustion engine (proof/mobility). Automakers had still spent $9B+ on fuel cells by 2014 (home). A team weighing a "hydrogen wins" scenario against a "batteries win" scenario could have seen which one the data favored.
We sell GetFocus as domain monitoring: an annual subscription per domain, up to 50 technologies and five platform seats, with monthly updates (product). It works from patent data. It does not build scenario narratives or model budgets, so pair it with one of the scenario tools above. It also does not do prior-art, freedom-to-operate or portfolio valuation work. TIR is a directional signal (docs), and timing is directional too (docs). See how we support scenario planning.
TechNext
TechNext, an MIT spinout, estimates an annual improvement rate for "150,000+" technology domains (technext.ai). Its Advance tool ranks routes by how fast each is closing on a system requirement, and Amplify compares a capability against its incumbent for "whether and when you overtake it" (products). Use it when a scenario hinges on a performance threshold. Pricing is on request.
How do you choose scenario planning software for disruptive technology?
Pick by the gap in your current process.
- You keep missing signals. Add a scanning tool: Shaping Tomorrow as a managed service, ITONICS for an internal radar.
- You have signals but no shared futures. Futures Platform gives the workshop a home.
- You cannot see what a scenario costs. Planisware models the portfolio impact.
- Your scenarios rest on opinion about which technology wins. Add GetFocus or TechNext and put a measured rate next to each assumption.
Two tests help with any vendor. First, replay a past decision: give each tool information up to a date and see what it would have told you. Second, ask how the tool flags a scenario going stale, and how often its evidence updates. For more on timing a bet, read invest now or wait and the 10-year technology roadmap.
FAQ
What is the best software for scenario planning around disruptive technologies?
Use one tool to build scenarios (Futures Platform, ITONICS or Shaping Tomorrow) and one to weigh them with evidence (GetFocus or TechNext). Add Planisware if you need the portfolio and budget impact.
How is technology forecasting different from scenario planning?
Scenario planning describes several plausible futures. Technology forecasting estimates which competing technology is improving fastest, which helps the team judge which future is more likely (method).
Can patent data support scenario planning?
Yes. Patent citations show how fast a technology improves. Our GetFocus forecast explains about 70% of the variation in measured improvement rates across 150+ domains (method). Treat it as a directional signal, and less reliable where a field relies on secrecy or weak patenting (docs).
How much does scenario planning software cost?
None of the six vendors here publishes a price. ITONICS lists a free version; we offer a free 48-hour GetFocus Decision Brief.
How often should technology scenarios be updated?
Set a cadence that matches the field. GetFocus recomputes positions monthly (home); Shaping Tomorrow tracks change monthly and reviews scenarios quarterly (Shaping Tomorrow).
