Proof · Tested on the past · For Rolls-Royce

In 1990, the data already knew which fuel injection system would win the diesel engine

The data picked common rail in 1990. VW, the unit injector’s biggest backer in cars, switched to it 15 years later.

A diesel engine gets its fuel into the cylinder in one of three ways. Pump-line-nozzle: one pump makes the pressure and feeds each cylinder through its own pipe. Unit injector: each cylinder has its own small pump in the injector, driven by the camshaft. Common rail: one pump keeps a shared pipe at high pressure, and a computer opens each injector when it chooses. For each we measured how much better per dollar it got every year, using only the patents that existed at the time.

Computed from patents published by each date · nothing here is hindsight
01 · The reading

How fast each fuel system improved

% better per dollar each year. Readings every two years. Dashed: common rail while it was still a handful of patents, an early sign.

1
1996
mtu Series 4000, common rail as standard
2
1997
First common rail cars
3
2005
VW, Cummins and Scania move to common rail
Patents written for diesel fuel injection systems, read with only the patents published by each year.
1.4×
Common rail against pump-line-nozzle in 1990 · 23% a year against 16
15 years
From the signal to VW, the unit injector’s biggest backer in cars, switching to common rail
02 · In the engine

Pressure held at any engine speed

What the data showed.

Common rail was ahead from the 1980s. By 1990 it was improving about 23% a year, against 16% for pump-line-nozzle and 13% for the unit injector, and it stayed ahead at every reading since. The unit injector improved slowest of the three throughout, even as car and truck makers fitted it in the 2000s.

What that meant in the engine.

In the other two systems the camshaft makes the pressure, so it rises and falls with engine speed and each stroke gets one squirt. Common rail holds the pressure at any speed and splits each injection into several small ones, which cleaner, quieter engines needed. VW’s stated reason for switching: common rail now reached much higher pressures.

SystemPressurePer stroke
Pump-line-nozzleRises and falls with engine speedOne injection
Unit injectorRises and falls with engine speedOne injection
Common railHeld at any speedSeveral small injections
CleanerQuieter
03 · Then the market caught up

Six years from the signal to common rail as standard on an mtu engine

1990

Our data: common rail improving faster than both other systems.

Signal
1994

mtu files its first common rail patent.

+4 yrs
1996

mtu Series 4000 launches with common rail as standard.

+6 yrs
1997

Common rail goes into its first cars, from Alfa Romeo and Mercedes.

+7 yrs
Aug 2005

Cummins and Scania team up to replace their unit injector with common rail.

+15 yrs
Oct 2005

VW, the unit injector’s biggest backer in cars, switches to common rail.

+15 yrs
May 2026

Volvo moves its D13 truck engine to common rail, one of the last holdouts.

+36 yrs
04 · What a 1990 reading would have been worth

Time to design a new engine series around it and file early

It would not have said which supplier would win, or how fast emission rules would tighten. It would have said the diesel fuel system of the future was a pressurised rail with computer-timed injectors, five years before the first one went into production.

For a maker of large diesel engines, that is the window to design a new engine series around it and file early. mtu did both.

1994
mtu files its first common rail patent
1996
mtu Series 4000 launches with common rail as standard

Data centres now ask the next question: diesel, gas engines, fuel cells or batteries. The same reading works for that race.

The method, in one minute

What is TIR?

TIR — the Technology Improvement Rate — measures how fast a technology gets better each year, computed from global patent data. Not who is filing, or how much: how fast the route is actually moving. Historically, the fastest-improving technology always wins.

Signal 1 · Cycle time
How many years between one generation of inventions and the next.
Shorter cycles = faster progress toward newer generations.
Signal 2 · Knowledge flow
How much each new generation is cited by later innovations.
More citations = bigger, more important step forward.
One number
Together they give a single, objective measure of speed — taking the guesswork (and politics) out of R&D bets.
Read more about the method →
Methodology co-developed with MIT — 30 years of peer-reviewed research.

Provenance. Every patent carries a publication date, so the record can be replayed: every improvement rate on this page uses only the patents that were published at the time. Chart data: GetFocus platform exports, October 2026.

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