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TL;DR
- Technology readiness level (TRL) is a 1-to-9 scale of maturity, from basic principles observed (TRL 1) to proven in operation (TRL 9).
- It is a snapshot. It says nothing about how fast a technology is improving.
- In EV batteries all six credible routes sit past TRL 5. TRL cannot separate them. The improvement rate splits them into three to fund and three to phase out.
- Plot TRL against Technology Improvement Rate and you get four verdicts: fund, monitor closely, phase out, ignore.
What is a technology readiness level (TRL)?
Technology readiness level is a nine-step scale that rates how mature a technology is. NASA developed it in the 1970s for space programmes. The European Commission, the US Department of Energy and most R&D organisations now use it as a shared language for maturity.
What are the 9 TRL levels?
| TRL | Stage |
|---|---|
| 1 | Basic principles observed |
| 2 | Technology concept formulated |
| 3 | Experimental proof of concept |
| 4 | Technology validated in the lab |
| 5 | Technology validated in a relevant environment |
| 6 | Technology demonstrated in a relevant environment |
| 7 | System prototype demonstrated in an operational environment |
| 8 | System complete and qualified |
| 9 | Actual system proven in an operational environment |
Where TRL stops helping
R&D teams use TRL every day and hit the same three limits.
It is a snapshot. TRL describes where a technology is now. A TRL 4 route improving at 40% a year and a TRL 8 route improving at 10% look nothing alike on a maturity chart. Over a fifteen-year horizon they trade places.
Comparisons across stages are skewed. Picking a winner among TRL 9 options is relatively easy. Among TRL 6 options, too many factors are still in play, and the level boundaries themselves are open to interpretation.
It cannot separate options at the same stage. That is the case in most real decisions.
The GetFocus platform · EV batteries
Readiness doesn't separate them. The rate does.
All six routes sit at TRL 6 or above. Only the improvement rate splits fund from phase out. Hover a route for its history.
GetFocus platform · Battery Technologies · 31,644 patent families · Full radar and verdicts
The GetFocus Automotive Technology Strategy Radar compares six battery routes for passenger EVs. All six are past TRL 5: validated in a relevant environment, near-commercial or proven. On TRL alone they are all credible. On improvement rate they split cleanly: sodium-ion at ~125% a year, lithium-sulfur at ~70% and LFP at ~65% clear the median of the set; solid-state, NMC and lithium-metal at 46–53% do not.
TRL vs improvement rate
| TRL (readiness) | Technology Improvement Rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Answers | How ready is it today? | How fast is it getting better? |
| Best for | What can we deploy in the next one to three years? | What should we invest in for the next five to fifteen? |
| Risk if used alone | Picks a mature option that has stopped improving | Can overlook constraints that block deployment |
| How it changes | Steps up occasionally | Measured continuously from new patents |
The Technology Improvement Rate comes from three decades of MIT research: every technology improves exponentially at its own stable rate, and where two technologies do the same job, the faster improver has historically won. GetFocus estimates it from the patent citation network, validated on 150+ domains.
The TRL × TIR matrix: four decisions
Plot maturity on one axis and improvement rate on the other, split at TRL 5 and at the median rate of the set:
- Mature, fast-improving: fund.
- Immature, fast-improving: monitor closely. The next fund candidates.
- Mature, slow-improving: phase out. Today's workhorse, tomorrow's cost.
- Immature, slow-improving: ignore or watch.
The ethylene radar applies the same matrix to fourteen decarbonisation routes whose rates differ by more than 3×.
How to use TRL well
- Use TRL for the near term. What can we deploy, buy or qualify within the product cycle?
- Use the rate for the long term. Which options are closing the gap fastest?
- Compare like with like. Only compare rates between technologies that do the same job.
- Watch the crossover. The decision point is when a lower-TRL option, improving faster, is about to match the mature one on the metric that matters.
FAQ
What does TRL stand for?
Technology readiness level, a nine-step scale for describing how mature a technology is.
What are the 9 TRL levels?
TRL 1 basic principles observed; 2 concept formulated; 3 proof of concept; 4 validated in the lab; 5 validated in a relevant environment; 6 demonstrated in a relevant environment; 7 prototype in an operational environment; 8 system complete and qualified; 9 proven in operation.
What is the difference between TRL and technology maturity?
TRL is one way of measuring maturity, based on progress toward operation. It does not capture how fast a technology improves, how it compares with alternatives, or whether it can be industrialised at your cost and scale.
Can a low-TRL technology be a better bet than a high-TRL one?
Yes, when your horizon is long and the lower-TRL option is improving much faster. For a near-term deployment, the higher-TRL option is usually safer. The TRL × TIR matrix shows both at once.
