Proof · Tested on the past · For Michelin

In 1980, the data already knew which run-flat carmakers would fit

The data picked the self-supporting run-flat in 1980. BMW made it standard 23 years later.

A run-flat tire keeps a car moving after a puncture. Two ways to do it competed. A support ring is a separate ring inside the tire, on a special wheel, that the flat tire rests on. A self-supporting tire carries the car on its own stiffened sidewalls. For each we measured how much better per dollar it got each year, using only the patents that existed at the time.

Computed from patents public at each date · nothing here is hindsight
01 · The reading

How fast each run-flat route improved

% better per dollar each year. Readings every two years from 1976. Improvement rate is read from patent citation networks across 180M+ patents.

1
1994
First self-supporting run-flat on sale
2
1997
Michelin shows its support ring
3
2002
First car fitted with PAX
4
2003
BMW 5 Series standard
5
2007
Michelin ends new PAX work
Sets, run-flat systems for passenger cars: support ring 1,271 patent families, self-supporting 1,825.
17 years
From the 1980 signal to the first support ring system being shown
15% vs 10%
Self-supporting against support ring in 1997, the year the ring was shown
02 · On the car

The ring needed a new wheel. The sidewall needed nothing new

What the data showed.

In the 1970s the support ring was improving faster. From 1980 the self-supporting tire pulled ahead, and it has stayed ahead at every reading since. In 1997, the year the first support ring system was shown, self-supporting was getting about 15% better per dollar every year, the support ring about 10%.

What that meant on the car.

The support ring needed an asymmetric wheel, a ring fitted with special machines, and tire shops able to service it. The self-supporting tire carries the load in the tire itself. Run-flats stayed a small share of tire sales, and the ring kept a niche in armoured cars, but on regular cars share moved to the sidewall.

What each route needed
Support ring
  • Asymmetric wheel
  • Ring fitted with special machines
  • Tire shops able to service it
Self-supporting
  • Load carried in the tire itself
  • Stiffened sidewalls
Regular cars: sidewallArmoured cars: ring niche
03 · Then the market caught up

Twenty-three years from the signal to BMW

1980

Our data: self-supporting improving faster than support ring.

Signal
1994

First self-supporting run-flat on sale: Goodyear EMT on the Corvette.

+14 yrs
1997

Michelin shows its support ring system, later named PAX.

+17 yrs
Feb 2002

First car fitted with PAX: the Renault Scenic.

+22 yrs
Aug 2003

BMW makes self-supporting run-flats standard on the 5 Series.

+23 yrs
Nov 2007

Michelin ends new PAX development: “no big market demand”.

+27 yrs
04 · What a 1980 reading would have been worth

Michelin filed on both routes. The reading said which to back

It would not have said whether run-flats would replace the spare wheel: they stayed a small share of sales in Europe. It would have said the run-flat carmakers would fit is the one that carries the car on its own sidewalls, from 1980, years before a support ring system was shown.

Michelin was filing on both routes from the 1970s. The reading would have said which one to back.

5 points
Self-supporting's lead in 1997
7 points
Its lead now, 17.8% against 10.8%

Self-supporting still leads, and by more than in 1997. The same reading works for the race you lead now, such as airless tires.

The method, in one minute

What is TIR?

TIR — the Technology Improvement Rate — measures how fast a technology gets better each year, computed from global patent data. Not who is filing, or how much: how fast the route is actually moving. Historically, the fastest-improving technology always wins.

Signal 1 · Cycle time
How many years between one generation of inventions and the next.
Shorter cycles = faster progress toward newer generations.
Signal 2 · Knowledge flow
How much each new generation is cited by later innovations.
More citations = bigger, more important step forward.
One number
Together they give a single, objective measure of speed — taking the guesswork (and politics) out of R&D bets.
Read more about the method →
Methodology co-developed with MIT — 30 years of peer-reviewed research.

Provenance. Every patent carries a filing date, so the record can be replayed: every improvement rate on this page uses only the patents that were public at the time. Chart data: GetFocus platform exports, October 2026.

Sources
  1. Corvette Action Center (EMT, 1994 and 1997)
  2. Michelin PAX history (Wikipedia; Tyrepress)
  3. BMW Group, 1 Aug 2003
  4. European Rubber Journal, 12 Nov 2007
  5. Tyrepress, 13 Nov 2007
Your next reading

Bring us the race you are in now

Bring us one live technology decision. Within 48 hours you get a free preliminary Decision Brief: a first-pass radar, improvement rates and suggested triggers.

Free · 48 hours · preliminary scoping. Validated radars come with a subscription