What If You Had Known Earlier? 3 Disruptions We Could Have Seen Coming

Kodak missed digital. But what if they’d seen the curve earlier? The name Kodak was synonymous with photography for over a century, a titan of industry built on the magic of silver halide film. Yet, the digital revolution swept past them, leaving a cautionary tale of a giant that failed to adapt. Hindsight, as always, is 20/20. We now know the outcome, but the burning question for today’s innovation leaders is: could Kodak have seen this coming? And more importantly, can we avoid similar blind spots in our own industries?

The reality is, strategic missteps often aren't about choosing the wrong technology outright. Instead, the critical failure lies in acting too late. We see a promising new approach, acknowledge its potential, but perhaps underestimate its trajectory or delay significant investment until it's undeniably mainstream. Hindsight is indeed brutal, revealing missed opportunities and the steep cost of inaction. But what if we could glean those insights before the market shifts dramatically?

The key lies in understanding that major technological disruptions rarely emerge out of thin air. They often follow exponential improvement curves. While a new technology might appear inferior or too expensive in its early stages, a steeper rate of progress can guarantee its future dominance. 

This is where the concept of Technology Improvement Rate (TIR) becomes crucial. TIR, inspired by research from MIT, reveals the velocity of improvement – the underlying slope that ultimately determines which technology overtakes its competitors.

“Our intuition about the future is linear. But the reality of information technology is exponential, and that makes a profound difference. If I take 30 steps linearly, I get to 30. If I take 30 steps exponentially, I get to a billion.”

Ray Kurzweil, American computer scientist, author, entrepreneur, futurist, and inventor.

Let's examine three significant disruptions through this lens:

Example 1 – Digital vs Film: The Unfolding Picture

Kodak’s downfall is a classic case study. They even invented the first digital camera but failed to fully embrace the technology that would decimate their core film business. But what if they had access to a tool that could measure and compare the improvement rates of silver halide film technology and CCD digital imagers?

According to GetFocus analysis, CCD digital imagers exhibited a consistently higher improvement speed than silver halide film as early as 1983. While in the early days, the quality and cost of digital photography couldn't compete with film, the rate at which digital was advancing was significantly faster. This meant that the performance and cost gap would inevitably close, and eventually, digital would surpass film.

Traditional patent counts, often used as a proxy for innovation, were misleading in this case, as CCD digital imagers only started out-patenting film in 2010, long after the disruption was well underway. However, by analyzing cycle time and knowledge flow within the patent data, GetFocus could have provided Kodak with this crucial insight almost two decades in advance, giving them a 17-year window to adapt their strategy.

“It would have been great if we’d had something like GetFocus to show management how serious the situation was”

Ronald S. Cok. Ex Research Fellow, Kodak

Example 2 – SSD vs HDD: The Silent Revolution in Storage

For years, Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) were the dominant technology for data storage. They were relatively cheap and offered sufficient capacity for most users. However, a quieter revolution was brewing in the form of Solid State Drives (SSDs). Initially expensive and with lower capacities, SSDs were often relegated to niche applications.

Yet, if one had analyzed the Technology Improvement Rate of SSDs versus HDDs, the future would have looked very different. GetFocus's study on Seagate revealed that SSDs have been improving at a significantly faster rate than HDDs. While the price per gigabyte remained a barrier for a long time, the consistent and higher TIR of SSDs guaranteed their eventual cost-effectiveness and superior performance, leading to their widespread adoption in laptops and even desktops.

The diverging trends in improvement rates might have been discernible as early as the early 1980s. Companies heavily invested in HDD technology could have used this early signal to strategically plan their transition to SSDs, mitigating the impact of this disruptive shift. Ignoring these underlying improvement curves meant potentially being caught off guard as the market rapidly transitioned.

Example 3 – EVs vs ICE: The Charge Towards the Future

The automotive industry is currently undergoing a massive transformation with the rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs) challenging the long-standing dominance of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. While EVs have gained significant traction in recent years, the underlying technological shift has been in motion for much longer.

Analyzing the improvement rates of lithium-ion battery technology compared to the efficiency gains in ICE technology would have provided a powerful early indicator. GetFocus's analysis suggests that lithium-ion batteries have been improving at a faster rate than combustion engines and fuel cells since their invention. Initially plagued by limited range and high costs, the continuous and rapid improvement in battery technology has been the key enabler of the EV revolution.

Automakers who heavily invested in fuel cells in the past, for example, might have made different strategic decisions if they had a clear, data-driven view of the comparative improvement rates. The data indicating the superior improvement trajectory of lithium-ion batteries was likely present well before EV adoption hit mainstream levels.

The Power of Foresight

These historical examples are not just interesting anecdotes; they highlight a fundamental principle: winning technologies often show clear and measurable signals of their future dominance in the data, long before they become mainstream. The challenge for innovation leaders has always been effectively identifying and interpreting these signals amidst the noise and hype.

Relying solely on news trends, scientific publications, or even the opinions of in-house experts can lead to delayed action or misplaced bets. These indicators often reflect current market sentiment or recent breakthroughs, not necessarily the underlying rate of improvement that dictates long-term success.

GetFocus automates the process of spotting these crucial improvement rates. By analyzing vast amounts of patent data and applying AI-powered algorithms to measure cycle time (how quickly new generations of technology emerge) and knowledge flow (the impact and influence of new inventions), GetFocus calculates the Technology Improvement Rate (TIR) for virtually any technology. This comparative metric reveals which technologies are improving faster than their rivals, providing an early warning system for potential disruptions.

Don't Miss the Next Curve

Hindsight can be a harsh teacher, revealing opportunities missed and the consequences of delayed action. But now, you have the potential to act with foresight. Don't let your organization be the next Kodak, caught off guard by a technological shift that showed measurable signals years in advance.

👉 Curious which technologies are quietly gaining momentum in your industry? Run a comparison of their improvement rates with GetFocus to uncover the improvement curves that will shape the future. 

By understanding the underlying rates of progress, you can move beyond reacting to change and start proactively shaping your strategy to capitalize on the next wave of disruption – before it's too late. Talk to our team today!