Signal · Polyurethane recycling routesPrepared for Dow · September 2026
The fastest-improving polyurethane chemistry is still in universities. BASF is in it. Dow is not.
Dow calls RENUVA the only closed-loop polyurethane technology. It placed three new polyol bets in one week in August, and the EU car rules came in on 13 August 2026. This is how fast every rival route is improving.
Six PU recycling routes, two boundary references · Dow's own route read in full
The decision
Where the next polyol bet goes · three placed in one week in August
The clock
EU end-of-life vehicle rules in force since 13 August 2026
The map
Six routes to recycled polyurethane, measured on maturity and improvement rate.
The high/low TIR bands split on the median improvement rate of these eight technologies (14.9%/yr) — a judgement relative to this domain, not a fixed threshold. The maturity split is TRL 5, the end of validation in a relevant environment. Pyrolysis and catalytic hydrogenolysis are boundary references. Glycolysis and rebonding sit close together at TRL 9 and are drawn nudged apart, with grey dots at their true positions. Source: GetFocus platform export · September 2026.
What the signal shows
The overstated lead66 of 83
Closing the loop is normal here, not rare.
66 of 83 patents in Dow’s own route put the polyol back into the same product — eight in ten. BASF and Evonik claim a full swap for new polyol. Dow’s own patents claim 20 to 55%.
The threat that is further off42%/yr
The fastest route is not foam, and not industry yet.
Only 12% of it is soft foam — a third is rubber, and RENUVA is foam. Universities own 58%, and their share is growing, not shrinking. Just 1 in 10 patents prove the material survives reheating.
The company that is there14 patents
BASF is building there. Dow is not.
BASF: 14 patents in the fast chemistry, ten since 2022, four on foam. Dow: none. Covestro: none. BASF also leads three of Dow’s other four routes.
Who holds the patents
Patent families per route — and each route’s biggest holder.
Source: GetFocus platform export · September 2026
Pyrolysis is a boundary reference — it covers mixed plastic waste, not PU alone. The orange bar is Dow’s own route: a university is its biggest holder there, and BASF is the top holder in glycolysis, hydrolysis and the fast reprocessable chemistry — the routes around RENUVA, not RENUVA itself.
For Dow
Your foam business is safe for a while. The fastest route is university work aimed at rubber, not foam. The claim is the harder part: most of your own field closes the loop the way you do, two rivals claim more than you do, and the one company building in the fast chemistry already leads three of your four routes.
The method, in one minute
What is TIR?
TIR — the Technology Improvement Rate — measures how fast a technology gets better each year, computed from global patent data. Not who is filing, or how much: how fast the route is actually moving. Historically, the fastest-improving technology always wins.
Signal 1 · Cycle time
How many years between one generation of inventions and the next.
Methodology co-developed with MIT — 30 years of peer-reviewed research.
What we could look into next
Three questions this teaser opened.
01
Your three August bets
Three bets in one week. Which one is improving fastest?
02
The other half of the molecule
Who gets the amine back, and at what yield? Fewer than 1 in 10 patents try.
03
Foam only
The same fast chemistry, foam only. Is anyone aiming at your market?
Pick one, or choose a new topic. We run it as a full proof of concept for you, at no cost.
A free proof of concept, on your question
Pick one question. We run it for free.
Rank your three polyol bets, trace who recovers the amine, or map the fast chemistry for foam alone — we run any one as a full proof of concept, at no cost, walked through with our analysts.
