Signal · Sustainable carbon black routesPrepared for Cabot · September 2026
Cabot's circular platform is the slowest route on this chart. The fastest one is about batteries, not tyres.
Euro 7 tyre abrasion limits hit new type approvals on 1 July 2028 and every new car tyre on 1 July 2030. A new CEO starts on 1 October, and Cabot announced a $125M conductive-additives expansion on 3 August. This is how fast every route into sustainable carbon is improving.
Six sustainable-carbon routes, one boundary reference · the fast routes read patent by patent
The decision
Where the sustainable-carbon bet goes next · new CEO starts 1 October
The clock
Euro 7 abrasion limits · type approvals 1 July 2028, every new car tyre 1 July 2030
The map
Six routes to sustainable carbon black, measured on maturity and improvement rate.
The high/low TIR bands split on the median improvement rate of these seven technologies (17.6%/yr) — a judgement relative to this domain, not a fixed threshold; tyre pyrolysis sits exactly on it. The maturity split is TRL 5, the end of validation in a relevant environment. Conventional furnace carbon black is a boundary reference — the process the others replace. Source: GetFocus platform export · September 2026.
What the signal shows
The overstated lead131 patents
Your circular platform improves slower than the furnace it replaces.
Circular and renewable oil 12.6% a year. The conventional furnace 14.0%. It is 131 patents, the smallest set here — Cabot holds 6, and appears as a new filer in its own platform.
The quiet shift26.1%/yr
The fast route has moved into your customers' mixers.
Recovered-black upgrading improves 26.1% a year, nearly double its 2017 rate. Tyre makers went from 23% of it to 42% since 2022 — Bridgestone alone holds 61 patents. Orion has 14 there since 2022. Cabot has 2, one of them from 2015.
The opening113 patents
The longest improvement lead here is a battery story.
CO₂-derived carbon has led every year since 2017 — by 14 points then, by less than one now. Only 6 of its 450 patents are about rubber; 113 are batteries and electrodes. That is the business you put $125M into on 3 August.
Who holds the patents
Patent families per route — and each route’s biggest holder.
Source: GetFocus platform export · September 2026
Furnace CB is a boundary reference — the conventional process the others replace. The orange bar is Cabot’s own route: the smallest field on the chart, with a tyre maker as its biggest holder. Bridgestone is the top holder in four of the seven fields.
For Cabot
Two messages, two businesses. In tyres, the fast route has moved inside your customers' own process. Bridgestone holds 61 patents there, Orion 14, you have 2, and 79% of that field already reports abrasion data, which is exactly what Euro 7 measures. In batteries, the carbon route with the longest improvement lead is aimed at electrodes, which is where your newest money went.
The method, in one minute
What is TIR?
TIR — the Technology Improvement Rate — measures how fast a technology gets better each year, computed from global patent data. Not who is filing, or how much: how fast the route is actually moving. Historically, the fastest-improving technology always wins.
Signal 1 · Cycle time
How many years between one generation of inventions and the next.
Methodology co-developed with MIT — 30 years of peer-reviewed research.
What we could look into next
Three questions this teaser opened.
01
Who is ahead on abrasion
79% of that field reports wear data. Whose numbers would pass Euro 7?
02
The 100% claim
109 patents claim a full swap for virgin black. Do any of them hold up?
03
Your battery carbon
The same chart for conductive additives, where the $125M just went.
Pick one, or choose a new topic. We run it as a full proof of concept for you, at no cost.
A free proof of concept, on your question
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Rank who would pass Euro 7 on abrasion, test the 109 full-swap claims, or run the same chart for conductive additives — we run any one as a full proof of concept, at no cost, walked through with our analysts.
