There are countless emerging technologies. Some of them will emerge as winners, others will be forgotten after a quick moment of hype. How do you determine which technologies deserve your attention, and which should be ignored?
Predicting technology trends is challenging for several reasons. First, the technological landscape is constantly evolving and there are ever more technologies to keep track of. In 1900, there were only 215 technological categories in which inventions could be classified. In 1970, this number had risen to 70.000, and today, it stands at over 265.000. The number of technologies is increasing exponentially and shows no signs of slowing down. This means that regardless of how much effort you put in, it is almost guaranteed you are overlooking one or more relevant technologies.
Second, emerging technologies typically perform poorly at the start of their lifecycle. This makes it seem like they will never outperform existing alternatives, until suddenly, they are close, and before you know it, far outperform them.
Third and finally, technologies tend to improve exponentially. And humans have poor intuition for exponential change. Add these three factors together and you understand why so many technological predictions end up being wrong.
Fortunately, there is a solution. At Focus, we developed AI-powered forecasting tools that can accurately predict which technologies are going to succeed. In many cases, we can even approximate when disruption will take place. With our tools, our customers can predict technological disruption years in advance, allowing them to take future-proof decisions.
Whilst many companies can inform you about trends in technology popularity, Focus can measure how fast technologies are actually improving based on underlying indicators hidden in patent data.
The method behind our AI powered trend predictions and technology forecasting was developed in a collaborative effort with MIT. We have conducted a number of studies confirming its effectiveness. Ask us about the scientific publications or have a look at how it works in practice.